The European Union’s ever expanding Brexit financial claims against the UK, now apparently northward of €100bn, have raised their head in the campaign. On 21 March 2017, the Prime Minister gave an interview to The Sunday Telegraph in which she insisted that the UK’s rights must be respected — including its claim to a share of the European Investment Bank — as well as any obligations. David Davis gave an interview to The Sunday Times in which he was dismissive of the EU’s financial demands for €100bn or more and commented: “I’m sufficiently poor to think that €1bn is a lot of money.” He also raised the possibility that the EU’s stance on this and other issues might lead to “no deal”.
We have scrutinised the EU’s Brexit financial claims as they are now being advanced under the European Council’s approved negotiating guidelines. Our new and updated Analysis of the UK’s potential financial liabilities looks at the legal arguments in depth. We have failed to find a credible legal argument either for a liability on the UK to contribute to the EU’s unfunded pension fund deficit, or for any liability to contribute to the EU’s ongoing programmes after Brexit day on 29 March 2019, with the possible exception of an obligation to carry on contributing overseas aid of €1.3bn up to the end of 2020 via the European Development Fund (EDF). But the EDF example is actually helpful to the wider argument that the UK has no ongoing liability at all to contribute to the EU budget, since the funding for the EDF is agreed via a quite different mechanism in which the individual Member States assume direct obligations to fund the programme outside the framework of the EU treaties. Continue reading “Withdrawal – UK potential financial liabilities”