Britain’s politicians, pro- as well as anti-Brexit, seem to agree on the need for a transition deal after the UK leaves the EU on 29 March 2019. But, warns Martin Howe QC, Chairman of Lawyers for Britain, such a deal will not deliver the early certainty that some business leaders seem to expect from it and will impose heavy costs across the whole UK economy in return for limited benefits for the sector of the economy exporting into the EU27.
In a new Politeia analysis The Cost of Transition: Few Gains, Much Pain? Martin Howe explains that under the Article 50 framework, there can be no transition deal unless and until both parties know what the end point is. ‘The EU has legal power under Article 50 to conclude a transitional arrangement, if but only if, the end state to which the transition will lead has been agreed at least as a framework’.
However, the EU has not only refused to reveal its hand and begin formal negotiations, it is unlikely to do so or play its ‘trump negotiating card’ until the ‘eleventh hour’, he says. By then the UK government could be panicked into agreeing almost anything and conceding to EU demands for money and other terms, if only to avoid the post-Brexit ‘cliff edge’ caused by lack of preparation. With Whitehall and government lulled into complacency with inadequate preparations to leave, the UK could be going ‘completely naked into the conference chamber’. Continue reading “Transition Period: Part 2: The high costs and small benefit of staying in the EU Customs Union”